Supply and demand analysis of the hottest PVC mark

2022-09-26
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Supply and demand analysis of the world PVC market

polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is one of the five thermoplastics, and our plastic matrix is one of the renewable biopolymer synthetic resins. The product volume is second only to polyethylene (PE), accounting for 29% of the total consumption of synthetic resins in the world. With the further internationalization of the market, the world's PVC production has entered a new expansion period since 1997, and the global total production capacity has now increased to 33.13 million tons. From the expansion of major companies in the world, the global PVC companies are now entering a new period of further monopolizing production capacity and expanding business scope, thus making the PVC market more international

I. current situation of PVC production in the world

at present, there are about 178 PVC resin production enterprises in the world, with a total production capacity of about 33.13 million tons and an output of about 28.23 million tons. Since 1995, the average annual growth rate has been 4.3% and 4.5% respectively. The average production capacity of world enterprises is about 186000 tons. The region with the largest production capacity is Asia, with a production capacity of about 14.76 million tons/year (including 1.31 million tons/year in the Middle East), followed by the Americas, with a production capacity of 9.45 million tons/year, and the third is Europe, with a production capacity of 9.29 million tons/year

it can be seen from table 1 that the overall growth rate of the world's PVC production capacity is slowing down, with Europe, the Americas and Oceania growing slowly, while developing countries growing faster, especially in recent years, Asia and Africa. It is expected that the world's PVC capacity will increase to about 35million tons around 2003

current situation of PVC consumption in the world

at present, PVC resin consumption in the world is dominated by choking products, accounting for 59.83% of the total consumption, soft products accounting for 32.88%, and others only accounting for 7.29%

at present, the region with large consumption is the Asia Pacific region, which is about 12.9 million tons/year (of which the consumption in the Middle East is about 880000 tons/year), followed by the Americas about 8.52 million tons/year and Europe about 6.66 million tons/year. The growth rate of world consumption is 5%, of which Asia and Africa have the fastest growth rate, and Asia has a growth rate of about 9%

Table 1 world PVC production capacity distribution (10000 tons)

region 1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001

Asia 781832.5 106112461476

Europe 101410261028825929

North America 620720740702717

Latin America 184220 225 206 228

Africa 46467040 41

Oceania 17.7 17 17.7 22

total 2669.2 2862.2 3141.7 3172 3313

.Note: PVC production capacity includes paste PVC

II. Current situation of PVC production in China

since the 1990s, with the rapid development of China's petrochemical industry, the output of PVC has increased significantly. In 2000, the output of PVC in China reached 2.3972 million tons. According to the newly released report "global elastomer market analysis", it increased by 21.4% over the same period, accounting for about 22% of the total output of plastic raw materials in China, ranking third below polyethylene and polypropylene. In 2001, China's PVC production continued to maintain a good growth trend. Its production capacity is 3.9 million tons, with an output of 3.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, accounting for about 12.3% of the world's total production capacity

1. Consumption of PVC in China

with the development of plastic products industry, the consumption of PVC in China has increased rapidly. The apparent consumption of PVC in China was 713400 tons in 1990 and increased to 1869400 tons in 1995. In 2000, it exceeded 4million tons to reach 4.1828 million tons, an increase of 4.9 times over 1990. The average annual growth rate in the past 10 years was as high as 19.3%, which was the period of the largest increase in apparent consumption in history. In 2001, the apparent consumption reached 5.5 million tons

2. Analysis of supply and demand of PVC in China

PVC resin production and plastic processing in China have made great progress during the Tenth Five Year Plan period. By 2005, the output of PVC resin will exceed 3million tons, while the demand of downstream industries for PVC resin will be more than 4.3 million tons. There will still be a certain gap in the supply of PVC resin in China. However, if several large-scale PVC projects under planning can be implemented, the supply-demand relationship of PVC in China will ease in the future. (see Table 2)

Table 2

China's PVC output in recent years Self sufficiency rate and other statistics (10000 tons)

year 1998 1999 2000 2001

production capacity 222 283342.5 408

capacity growth rate (%) 2.49 27.47 22.79 19.1

output 154.6 225 281355

output growth rate (%) -1.8 23.35 33 33.8 26.33

Enterprise start-up rate (%) 69.6 79.5 82 87

import 157.7 179.7 192.41 211

export 4.00 3.02 4.4 3.00

apparent production consumption 312 351462 550

consumption growth rate (%) 15.9 12.51 Huaze cobalt nickel pseudo power new material project 5.3 19

domestic self-sufficiency rate (%) 49.5 54.3 60.8 64.5

note: all data before 2000 do not include paste PVC resin (EPVC).Vc)

3 Analysis on the import and export of PVC in China

as China can also adopt 5 mm or 20 mm PVC as required, the demand for ethylene has increased rapidly, and the import volume has increased significantly in recent years. In 1995, China imported 566300 tons of PVC, and in 2000, the import volume reached 1806000 tons, an increase of 2.1 times over 1995, and the average annual growth rate in the five years was as high as 25.7%. In 2000, imports accounted for 43.2% of domestic consumption. In 2001, China imported 2.4309 million tons of PVC. The import trade volume was 1.398 billion US dollars, an increase of 31.44% and 8.67% respectively over 2000. The export was 22000 tons, an increase of 6.8% over 2000. The export trade was 12.6607 million tons, a decrease of 13.5

3% over the previous year

III. world market demand forecast

it is estimated that the world PVC capacity will be 37.177 million tons in 2005, and the consumption will be 32.03 million tons. The capacity will reach 40.76 million tons in 2010, and the consumption is estimated to be 37.46 million tons at that time. It is estimated that the apparent demand for PVC in China will reach 6.11 million tons in 2005 and 9.78 million tons in 2010. In the future, the world supply and demand will be basically balanced, the contradiction between supply and demand in Asia will be alleviated, and central/Eastern Europe will likely become a large PVC export region. (see Table 3)

the main consumer market of PVC in the future will still be the construction industry. PVC pipes, doors and windows and panel walls will continue to replace metal and wood because of their appropriate price performance ratio, low maintenance requirements and maintenance costs, corrosion resistance and pollution, good insulation, convenient use and other advantages. PVC film will shrink due to the strong competition between LLDPE and LDPE, the market of flexible PVC sheet ethylene sheet will also grow slowly due to the competition between HDPE and PP sheet, the market of rigid PVC sheet will also be competitive with PP and pet, and PET bottles will further compete for some markets of

PVC bottles

Table 3

supply and demand of PVC in the world in 2005 and 2010 (10000 tons)

region 2005 2010 2005 2010

capacity consumption consumption

Africa 45.70 51.70 74.70 63.10

Asia 1404.00 1581.20 1381.50 1175.70

Central/Eastern Europe 265.00 265.00 115.10 94.10

North America 957.30 1072.30 1002.90 873.60

Middle East 166.90 198.90 210 143.40

Central/South America 179.30 194.90 246.20 187.30

Western Europe 675.50 685.50 679.50 633.20

Oceania 24.00 26.6 0 36.00 32.80

world 3717.70 4076.10 3746.20 3203.10

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